美國幾時出兵伊朗？

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https://x.com/ThePollLady/status/2030253171726037375

As soon as Iranian leadership announced No Strikes on Gulf countries, the U.S. began bombing Iran’s desalination plants.

So you know what retaliation is likely to come next. At this point, even the Iranian leadership may not be able to stop it.

IRGC is completely decentralized with numerous fully autonomous units, which do not require decision-making from Tehran.

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https://x.com/kikiyoshi_2233/status/2030278060201963638

个人感觉 这次冲突应该差不多快结束了。下周伊朗估计也回逐步松开霍尔木兹海峡的封锁。买了相关股票的朋友记得见好就收吧！理由如下：

1，川普发这个推的意思，很大可能就是通过一次轰炸，来宣布彻底的胜利！不管这个胜利，伊朗承不承认，至少川普，他是一定要赢的！

2，美国会出动地面部队吗？很可惜，可能性非常低。伊朗各种山脉纵横，即便打进了德黑兰，想形成有效的统治，还是非常低的。而且非常非常花钱，民意的支持度也非常低。

3，霍尔木兹海峡事关全球的油运通道，对世界油价牵一发而动全身。其中的利益实在是太巨大了。国际资本还有中东的王爷们都是靠这个发财的。伊朗不太可能长期封锁，这次主动道歉，估计后面也是要逐步解开封锁。

4，伊朗自身也需要放开霍尔木兹海峡。导弹，无人机并不是凭空变出来的。伊朗的革命卫队经济发展能力本身就差，国内早就穷困潦倒了。这几年全靠石油来维持。如果长期封锁，对其自身也是非常大的损害。两伊战争期间，霍尔木兹海峡都没封锁，可见石油对于伊朗的重要性。现在封锁更多地是谈判的手段，极限施压威胁对方。后续还是要回到谈判桌来解决问题。

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https://x.com/SV_Nomad/status/2030315835739521387

这三个选项中
实际上可以操作的只有第一个
也就是硬着头皮宣布达成目标
结束轰炸
期望伊朗方面也借坡下驴达成停火
但是它解决不了这几个问题：
霍木兹海峡变安全了吗？
保险公司敢承保了吗？
船长船员敢提着脑袋挣这个钱吗？

更近一步
在这个时候停火，伊朗能得到什么好处？

https://x.com/sungleeiq/status/2030145944948195604

TRUMP HAS 3 OPTIONS LEFT ON IRAN. ALL OF THEM ARE TERRIBLE.

Day 8 of the Iran war and the President is cornered. Here are his only moves:

OPTION 1: Declare victory and retreat.
→ The U.S. loses the Middle East FOREVER
→ Israel's days become numbered
→ Iran rebuilds and comes back STRONGER
→ America looks weak to every adversary on Earth
→ Trump's legacy = another Afghanistan

OPTION 2: Boots on the ground.
→ Massive American casualties — GUARANTEED
→ Iran is the size of Alaska, 90M people, ALL mountains
→ The U.S. couldn't beat the Taliban in 20 years with full NATO support
→ Iranian drones are shredding conventional military strategy
→ New generation of Iranian commanders are SMARTER than the ones killed
→ No exit strategy. None.

OPTION 3: Nuclear weapons.
→ The moment a nuke hits Iran — the ENTIRE world turns against America
→ Russia and China enter the chat IMMEDIATELY
→ Pakistan — Iran's nuclear neighbor — retaliates
→ Radiation poisons the entire region INCLUDING Israel
→ M.A.D. protocol activated. Civilization at stake.

Here's what nobody wants to say out loud:

The U.S. has the greatest air force in history. 8 days of bombing. And all they've achieved is political assassinations of leaders who were too arrogant to hide.

Iran's missile launches dropped from 350 on Day 1 to 15 on Day 8 — but their drones keep coming. Their proxies keep firing. Hezbollah just CAPTURED an IDF soldier. Saudi oil fields are under attack.

The old playbook doesn't work anymore. Drone warfare changed everything. China itself said: "You are not prepared for this."

Trump is stuck between retreat, quagmire, and armageddon.

There is no good option. Only bad, worse, and unthinkable.

Prepare accordingly.

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Events in the Strait of Hormuz are showing in real time that 150+ years of Mahan Doctrine ("control naval choke points & you control the world") are ending as missiles, drones, & AUV's turn naval choke points into naval kill zones.

Massive implications for geopolitics & macro.

https://x.com/LukeGromen/status/2030297656476438885

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暫時伊朗炸左三個美資中東數據中心：兩個 AWS 系，一個微軟系

[joe]

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https://x.com/Eng_china5/status/2030588478917112011

JUST IN AND UNUSUAL
CHINA is recording the US war live!

The US attacks on Iran have become a veritable military intelligence laboratory for China.

More than 300 Jilin-1 satellites are recording every detail, second by second, from munition refueling to missile trajectories.

China is turning US war doctrine into a database, including refueling times and air defense responses.

According to experts, this data could give China a military research and development advantage that will last for decades.

US war tactics are being thoroughly analyzed.

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就算唔炸海水化淡廠，德克蘭的食水已被污染

https://x.com/BabakTaghvaee1/status/2030600594059117049

BREAKING: What Israel has done to Tehran, the capital city of Iran, and its people amounts to an environmental catastrophe. By targeting major oil resources used by the population, the strikes have triggered widespread fires and pollution. Reports indicate that water in many areas of Tehran has become acidic, while streets, houses, and buildings are covered with drainage water mixed with oil. The scale of the damage could result in an environmental disaster for the city that may take decades to recover from.

[joe]

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2023年沙特和伊朗石破惊天的在中国达成和解，本质是中国把中东的宗教矛盾从主要矛盾变成次要矛盾，把反抗美国和以色列的侵略变成主要矛盾。所以中国政府以这次伊朗战争为契机，重新把主要矛盾凸现，推动中东国家和穆斯林国家把美国赶出中东的新独立运动是可以期待的，你别低估了中国政府的组织能力。

https://x.com/ErikWilcox91338/status/20 ... 5122508060

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https://x.com/KKaWSB/status/2030634468512293095

据报道，美国官员正在讨论一项夺取伊朗哈尔克岛的计划，该岛是伊朗石油出口的咽喉要道，约占伊朗石油出口的 90%。

如果该提议获得通过，该岛将在战争的下一阶段直接置于美国军事控制之下。

而哈尔格只是第一步。一旦控制了哈尔格，计划就会转向封锁伊朗的核设施，并加强美国对霍尔木兹海峡的控制，霍尔木兹海峡是整个地区的经济命脉。

来源：Axios

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https://x.com/ErikWilcox91338/status/20 ... 7051430032

美国在背后搞鬼，巴基斯坦和阿富汗冲突一旦扩大化，有可能遮断巴基斯坦往伊朗运送武器的通道，对伊朗抵抗的心理上是一种威慑。

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中国卫星正在”直播”美伊战争。

吉林一号星座117颗卫星在轨，每天对全球任意地点重访38-40次。美军航母航行轨迹、战机调动、加油补给、THAAD部署位置——全被拍得一清二楚。

央视公开播出美军基地卫星图。美军自己承认：部署已经”公开可见”。

更关键的是：伊朗放弃了美国GPS，改用中国北斗导航。2025年6月冲突中GPS被美军干扰导致导弹偏差，现在北斗军用加密精度达厘米级。

西方分析师担忧：这些数据可能正在流向伊朗，成为导弹制导的”上帝视角”。

有争议的是：部分高清图像可能并非来自中国卫星，而是AI分析西方商业卫星数据。

但结论不变：美军曾经的信息垄断优势，正在被打破。这场战争没有秘密。

https://x.com/KKaWSB/status/2030637204851343713

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https://x.com/Matt_Bracken48/status/2030672133995516196

Still no tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Check for yourself, anytime, at http://Vesselfinder.com Here, the filter is set to only show tankers.

As long as the strait is closed, we are losing, even if we wipe Teheran off the map. (Teheran is 700 miles north of the SoH, the distance from Chicago to NYC.)

And no oil going out on tankers also means no food is coming in on cargo ships. The GCC imports 85-90% of its food. Iran only imports 25-30%.

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Old data, but nice maps and presentations

https://x.com/sohbetkarbuz/status/2030332041120645463